Willow Valley, AZ
Willow Valley, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Willow Valley at the 53rd national percentile for risk to structures, modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a score built from 1,610 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Willow Valley at the 53rd national percentile — 1 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Willow Valley's building exposure, zone by zone
95.4% of Willow Valley's 1,610 buildings sit in USFS's Minimal exposure zone, with only 4.6% rated Direct — risk here comes from regional burn probability more than proximity to burnable vegetation at the structure itself.
Willow Valley against the rest of the country
Willow Valley's 53rd national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 22nd ranking inside Arizona does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 32 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Willow Valley ranks 14,708 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 8,728 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 346 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Willow Valley's elevated wildfire rating (53rd percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
What would actually reduce this score
Willow Valley's 95.4% Minimal-exposure share means structure-level hardening matters less here than it would elsewhere — still worth the low-cost basics, per the home-hardening guide.
Where Willow Valley's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Willow Valley's 14,708-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Willow Valley's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.