Walnut Springs, TX
How exposed is Walnut Springs to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Walnut Springs at the 96th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 559 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Walnut Springs at the 95th national percentile — 1 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
53.1% of Walnut Springs's 559 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 297 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 46.9% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0% are Minimal.
Walnut Springs against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Walnut Springs's 96th national percentile and its 96th percentile inside Texas, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Walnut Springs ranks 1,431 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 16,436 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 77 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Walnut Springs's 96th-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Walnut Springs (53.1%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Walnut Springs's 96th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Walnut Springs, see the exposure-zones guide.