Wagon Wheel, AZ
Wagon Wheel, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Wagon Wheel at the 97th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 1,164 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Wagon Wheel's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 96th percentile nationally.
Where Wagon Wheel's buildings actually sit
Direct exposure dominates in Wagon Wheel: 66.6% of its 1,164 buildings, versus 33.4% Indirect and 0% Minimal. Clearing space around a structure changes the outcome here more than any single building-material swap.
Where Wagon Wheel ranks
There's little gap between Wagon Wheel's 97th national percentile and its 85th percentile inside Arizona, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Wagon Wheel ranks 807 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,873 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 68 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Wagon Wheel
Wagon Wheel's 97th-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Wagon Wheel's 66.6% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
Where Wagon Wheel's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 1,164 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Wagon Wheel. The exposure-zones guide covers what Wagon Wheel's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.