Waco, TX
Waco wildfire risk explained
USFS scores Waco at the 74th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (well above the national norm for wildfire risk), a figure built from 44,723 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Waco's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 73rd percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Most of Waco's buildings (68.5% of 44,723) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure. At 44,723 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Waco against the rest of the country
Waco ranks lower within Texas (42nd percentile statewide) than its 74th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Waco ranks 8,274 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 206 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 1,041 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
Waco and the insurance market
Waco's high rating (74th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 68.5% of Waco outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Waco's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Waco's 8,274-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Waco's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.