Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
Upper Grand Lagoon wildfire risk explained
Upper Grand Lagoon's 7,782 buildings earn a 86th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Upper Grand Lagoon's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 83rd percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Upper Grand Lagoon rates 61.3% Minimal exposure against just 8.2% Direct and 30.5% Indirect — of 7,782 buildings counted, few sit close enough to burnable vegetation for USFS to flag them individually. At 7,782 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Where Upper Grand Lagoon ranks
Inside Florida, Upper Grand Lagoon sits at just the 68th percentile even though it scores 86th nationally — the state's overall wildfire exposure is high enough to make this a relatively quiet corner of it. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Upper Grand Lagoon ranks 4,374 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 2,186 by building count (1 is largest). Within Florida alone, it ranks 303 of 955 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Florida on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Upper Grand Lagoon
Upper Grand Lagoon's 86th-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
What would actually reduce this score
Upper Grand Lagoon's 61.3% Minimal-exposure share means structure-level hardening matters less here than it would elsewhere — still worth the low-cost basics, per the home-hardening guide.
Where Upper Grand Lagoon's figures come from
Upper Grand Lagoon's 86th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Upper Grand Lagoon's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.