Turkey Creek, AZ
Turkey Creek wildfire risk explained
Turkey Creek's 117 buildings earn a 99th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Turkey Creek's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 98th percentile nationally.
Turkey Creek's building exposure, zone by zone
Of Turkey Creek's 117 counted buildings, 100% carry Direct exposure and only 0% carry Minimal — a lopsided split that puts defensible-space clearing ahead of vents or roofing as the intervention worth doing first.
How Turkey Creek compares
There's little gap between Turkey Creek's 99th national percentile and its 93rd percentile inside Arizona, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Turkey Creek ranks 399 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 28,285 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 31 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Turkey Creek
Turkey Creek's very high rating (99th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Turkey Creek (100%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Turkey Creek's 99th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Turkey Creek, see the exposure-zones guide.