Tumbling Shoals, AR
How exposed is Tumbling Shoals to wildfire?
Out of every US place USFS scores, Tumbling Shoals lands at the 76th percentile for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 969 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Tumbling Shoals's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 79th percentile nationally.
Tumbling Shoals's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS classifies 99.9% of Tumbling Shoals's buildings as Direct exposure, higher than its 0% Indirect share and far above its 0.1% Minimal share — a profile where 968 structures sit close enough to vegetation that lot clearing matters most.
Tumbling Shoals against the rest of the country
Tumbling Shoals's risk sits at a similar level relative to Arkansas (69th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (76th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tumbling Shoals ranks 7,492 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 12,157 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 195 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
Tumbling Shoals and the insurance market
Tumbling Shoals's high rating (76th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
With 99.9% of Tumbling Shoals in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Tumbling Shoals's 7,492-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Tumbling Shoals, see the exposure-zones guide.