Tucson Estates, AZ
Tucson Estates wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Tucson Estates at the 82nd national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 7,617 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Tucson Estates at the 79th national percentile — 3 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Indirect exposure is dominant in Tucson Estates (69.8% of 7,617 buildings): far enough from burnable vegetation to avoid flame contact, close enough for wind-blown embers. Only 29.6% sit in the Direct zone. At 7,617 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Tucson Estates against the rest of the country
Tucson Estates ranks lower within Arizona (48th percentile statewide) than its 82nd national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tucson Estates ranks 5,567 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 2,244 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 229 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Tucson Estates
Tucson Estates's very high rating (82nd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Tucson Estates's 69.8% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 7,617 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Tucson Estates. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Tucson Estates, see the exposure-zones guide.