Tonto Basin, AZ
Tonto Basin, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Out of every US place USFS scores, Tonto Basin lands at the 91st percentile for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a figure built from its 1,864 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Tonto Basin's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 90th percentile nationally.
Tonto Basin's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS classifies 80.7% of Tonto Basin's buildings as Direct exposure, higher than its 19.3% Indirect share and far above its 0% Minimal share — a profile where 1,504 structures sit close enough to vegetation that lot clearing matters most.
How Tonto Basin compares
Inside Arizona, Tonto Basin sits at just the 65th percentile even though it scores 91st nationally — the state's overall wildfire exposure is high enough to make this a relatively quiet corner of it. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tonto Basin ranks 2,886 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 7,866 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 156 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Tonto Basin and the insurance market
Tonto Basin's 91st-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Hardening a home in Tonto Basin
Because Direct exposure dominates in Tonto Basin (80.7%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 1,864 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Tonto Basin. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Tonto Basin, see the exposure-zones guide.