Tonka Bay, MN
Tonka Bay, MN's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Tonka Bay's 851 buildings earn a 41st-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Tonka Bay at the 39th percentile, close to its 41st-percentile risk score.
Where Tonka Bay's buildings actually sit
USFS classifies 69% of Tonka Bay's buildings as Minimal exposure, the largest of the three zones here by a wide margin over 31% Direct and 0% Indirect — a landscape-level risk rather than a building-by-building one.
Tonka Bay against the rest of the country
Within Minnesota, Tonka Bay ranks higher (57th percentile) than it does nationally (41st) — one of the more fire-exposed places in a state that, overall, scores lower than that. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tonka Bay ranks 18,563 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 13,153 by building count (1 is largest). Within Minnesota alone, it ranks 398 of 914 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Minnesota on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Tonka Bay's elevated rating (41st percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
Hardening a home in Tonka Bay
With 69% of buildings rated Minimal exposure, Tonka Bay gets less benefit from structure hardening than a Direct- or Indirect-dominant place would — the home-hardening guide explains why the zone matters.
Where Tonka Bay's figures come from
Tonka Bay's 41st-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Tonka Bay's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.