Tonawanda, NY
Tonawanda, NY's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Tonawanda at the 13th national percentile for risk to structures, among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally — a score built from 8,121 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Tonawanda at the 12th percentile, close to its 13th-percentile risk score.
Tonawanda's building exposure, zone by zone
Most of Tonawanda's buildings (81.6% of 8,121) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure. At 8,121 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Tonawanda against the rest of the country
Tonawanda's 32nd-percentile standing inside New York outpaces its 13th national percentile — this is a hotter spot than most of its own state, even though the state as a whole runs cooler nationally. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tonawanda ranks 27,429 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 2,067 by building count (1 is largest). Within New York alone, it ranks 883 of 1,289 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New York on its state page.
Tonawanda and the insurance market
At the 13th national percentile, Tonawanda rates low for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 81.6% of Tonawanda outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Tonawanda's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 8,121 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Tonawanda. The exposure-zones guide covers what Tonawanda's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.