Toms River, NJ
Toms River wildfire risk explained
USFS scores Toms River at the 83rd national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally), a figure built from 35,977 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Toms River's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 78th percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Toms River rates 81.4% Minimal exposure against just 12.9% Direct and 5.8% Indirect — of 35,977 buildings counted, few sit close enough to burnable vegetation for USFS to flag them individually. At 35,977 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Toms River against the rest of the country
Toms River's risk sits at a similar level relative to New Jersey (87th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (83rd) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Toms River ranks 5,487 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 295 by building count (1 is largest). Within New Jersey alone, it ranks 94 of 700 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New Jersey on its state page.
Toms River and the insurance market
Toms River's very high rating (83rd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Even with 81.4% of Toms River outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Toms River's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Toms River's 5,487-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Toms River's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.