Tolani Lake, AZ
Tolani Lake, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores Tolani Lake at the 25th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range), a figure built from 125 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Tolani Lake's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 29th percentile nationally.
Tolani Lake's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS classifies 60% of Tolani Lake's buildings as Direct exposure, higher than its 40% Indirect share and far above its 0% Minimal share — a profile where 75 structures sit close enough to vegetation that lot clearing matters most.
Where Tolani Lake ranks
Tolani Lake ranks lower within Arizona (5th percentile statewide) than its 25th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Tolani Lake ranks 23,657 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 27,926 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 420 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Tolani Lake
At the 25th national percentile, Tolani Lake rates moderate for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Tolani Lake (60%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 125 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Tolani Lake. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Tolani Lake, see the exposure-zones guide.