St. Paul, VA
How exposed is St. Paul to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts St. Paul at the 80th national percentile for risk to structures, well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a score built from 503 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, St. Paul's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 83rd percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Most of St. Paul's buildings (75%) sit in the Indirect zone, where wind-blown embers rather than flame front are the mechanism USFS is scoring — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing are the interventions this pattern favors, more than defensible space alone.
Where St. Paul ranks
St. Paul scores 80th nationally and 92nd within Virginia — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, St. Paul ranks 6,352 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 17,299 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 55 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
St. Paul's high rating (80th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
St. Paul's 75% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
Where St. Paul's figures come from
St. Paul's 80th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what St. Paul's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.