St. Paul, MO
St. Paul wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts St. Paul at the 45th national percentile for risk to structures, modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a score built from 1,405 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks St. Paul at the 48th national percentile — 2 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
St. Paul's building exposure, zone by zone
83.8% of St. Paul's 1,405 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 1,178 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 9.8% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 6.3% are Minimal.
How St. Paul compares
St. Paul ranks lower within Missouri (24th percentile statewide) than its 45th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, St. Paul ranks 17,238 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 9,606 by building count (1 is largest). Within Missouri alone, it ranks 803 of 1,062 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Missouri on its state page.
St. Paul and the insurance market
At the 45th national percentile, St. Paul rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
St. Paul's 83.8% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
Where St. Paul's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 1,405 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for St. Paul. The exposure-zones guide covers what St. Paul's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.