St. Paul, MN
How exposed is St. Paul to wildfire?
St. Paul sits at the 33rd percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 108,111 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts St. Paul at the 33rd percentile, close to its 33rd-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
St. Paul rates 97.7% Minimal exposure against just 2.3% Direct and 0% Indirect — of 108,111 buildings counted, few sit close enough to burnable vegetation for USFS to flag them individually. At 108,111 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
How St. Paul compares
There's little gap between St. Paul's 33rd national percentile and its 40th percentile inside Minnesota, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, St. Paul ranks 21,145 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 57 by building count (1 is largest). Within Minnesota alone, it ranks 548 of 914 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Minnesota on its state page.
St. Paul and the insurance market
St. Paul's moderate rating (33rd percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
What would actually reduce this score
With 97.7% of buildings rated Minimal exposure, St. Paul gets less benefit from structure hardening than a Direct- or Indirect-dominant place would — the home-hardening guide explains why the zone matters.
More on how this number was built
St. Paul's 33rd-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what minimal exposure implies beyond St. Paul, see the exposure-zones guide.