South Toms River, NJ
South Toms River wildfire risk explained
South Toms River sits at the 95th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 1,279 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, South Toms River's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 91st percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Most of South Toms River's buildings (86.2%) sit in the Indirect zone, where wind-blown embers rather than flame front are the mechanism USFS is scoring — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing are the interventions this pattern favors, more than defensible space alone.
Where South Toms River ranks
South Toms River scores 95th nationally and 98th within New Jersey — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, South Toms River ranks 1,704 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,204 by building count (1 is largest). Within New Jersey alone, it ranks 14 of 700 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New Jersey on its state page.
South Toms River and the insurance market
South Toms River's very high rating (95th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because 86.2% of South Toms River's buildings sit in the Indirect zone, sealing the ember pathway (vents, roofing, gutters) is the intervention this page's data actually supports — see the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
South Toms River's 95th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond South Toms River, see the exposure-zones guide.