South Run, VA
South Run, VA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores South Run at the 25th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range), a figure built from 2,045 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks South Run at the 25th national percentile — 0 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
2,045 buildings are counted in South Run, and 57.6% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 16% rated Minimal.
How South Run compares
There's little gap between South Run's 25th national percentile and its 15th percentile inside Virginia, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, South Run ranks 23,714 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 7,343 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 580 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
South Run's moderate wildfire rating (25th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Hardening a home in South Run
Because Direct exposure dominates in South Run (57.6%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
South Run's 25th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond South Run, see the exposure-zones guide.