Shirley, AR
Shirley, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Shirley at the 84th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 266 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Shirley's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 86th percentile nationally.
Shirley's building exposure, zone by zone
266 buildings are counted in Shirley, and 83.1% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
How Shirley compares
Shirley scores 84th nationally and 90th within Arkansas — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Shirley ranks 5,093 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 22,622 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 62 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
Shirley and the insurance market
Shirley's very high rating (84th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Shirley (83.1%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Shirley's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 266 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Shirley. The exposure-zones guide covers what Shirley's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.