Shell Valley, ND
Shell Valley wildfire risk explained
USFS scores Shell Valley at the 89th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally), a figure built from 773 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Shell Valley at the 89th percentile, close to its 89th-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
93.7% of Shell Valley's 773 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 724 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 6.2% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0.1% are Minimal.
Shell Valley against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Shell Valley's 89th national percentile and its 99th percentile inside North Dakota, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Shell Valley ranks 3,412 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 13,892 by building count (1 is largest). Within North Dakota alone, it ranks 6 of 402 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for North Dakota on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Shell Valley
Shell Valley's 89th-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Hardening a home in Shell Valley
With 93.7% of Shell Valley in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
Where Shell Valley's figures come from
Shell Valley's 89th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Shell Valley's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.