Shelby, MI
Shelby, MI's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Shelby at the 28th national percentile for risk to structures, close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — a score built from 834 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Shelby at the 28th national percentile — 0 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Indirect exposure is dominant in Shelby (70.3% of 834 buildings): far enough from burnable vegetation to avoid flame contact, close enough for wind-blown embers. Only 29.4% sit in the Direct zone.
Where Shelby ranks
Compare Shelby's two percentiles: 80th within Michigan, only 28th nationally — a gap of 52 points that marks it as unusually exposed for its own state. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Shelby ranks 22,630 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 13,306 by building count (1 is largest). Within Michigan alone, it ranks 154 of 745 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Michigan on its state page.
Shelby and the insurance market
Shelby's moderate wildfire rating (28th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Hardening a home in Shelby
With ember exposure the dominant pattern in Shelby (70.3% Indirect), vent screens and roofing material tend to matter more than lot clearing alone. The home-hardening guide covers both.
Where Shelby's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 834 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Shelby. The exposure-zones guide covers what Shelby's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.