San Francisco, CA
San Francisco, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
San Francisco sits at the 67th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 160,463 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks San Francisco at the 65th national percentile — 2 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
USFS classifies 96.6% of San Francisco's buildings as Minimal exposure, the largest of the three zones here by a wide margin over 0.4% Direct and 3% Indirect — a landscape-level risk rather than a building-by-building one. At 160,463 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
How San Francisco compares
San Francisco ranks lower within California (24th percentile statewide) than its 67th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, San Francisco ranks 10,422 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 39 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 1,191 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
San Francisco and the insurance market
San Francisco sits in California, one of two states that legally require a wildfire-risk disclosure at sale. California's FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort, ended 2025 with 668,609 residential policies after adding 21,859 in Q4 alone — the kind of market shift a 67th-percentile score like San Francisco's can end up mattering for. More on the disclosure law.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 96.6% of San Francisco outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where San Francisco's figures come from
San Francisco's 67th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what San Francisco's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.