San Carlos, AZ
San Carlos, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
San Carlos sits at the 84th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 1,340 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, San Carlos's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 86th percentile nationally.
San Carlos's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS classifies 64% of San Carlos's buildings as Direct exposure, higher than its 36% Indirect share and far above its 0% Minimal share — a profile where 858 structures sit close enough to vegetation that lot clearing matters most.
San Carlos against the rest of the country
San Carlos's 84th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 51st ranking inside Arizona does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 33 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, San Carlos ranks 5,190 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 9,881 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 216 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in San Carlos
San Carlos's very high rating (84th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in San Carlos (64%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 1,340 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for San Carlos. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond San Carlos, see the exposure-zones guide.