Paradise Valley, AZ
Paradise Valley wildfire risk explained
Paradise Valley's 9,107 buildings earn a 68th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Paradise Valley at the 64th percentile, close to its 68th-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
USFS classifies 54.7% of Paradise Valley's buildings as Minimal exposure, the largest of the three zones here by a wide margin over 17.8% Direct and 27.5% Indirect — a landscape-level risk rather than a building-by-building one. At 9,107 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Paradise Valley against the rest of the country
Paradise Valley ranks lower within Arizona (32nd percentile statewide) than its 68th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Paradise Valley ranks 10,010 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 1,818 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 301 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Paradise Valley and the insurance market
At the 68th percentile nationally, Paradise Valley carries the high rating that has pushed some carriers to limit new business in similarly-scored places elsewhere in the country. Worth comparing quotes rather than assuming last year's renewal terms still apply.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 54.7% of Paradise Valley outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Paradise Valley's figures come from
Paradise Valley's 68th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Paradise Valley's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.