Oakton, VA
Oakton, VA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Oakton at the 20th national percentile for risk to structures, among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally — a score built from 6,531 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Oakton at the 20th national percentile — 0 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
55.8% of Oakton's 6,531 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 3,646 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 24.2% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 20% are Minimal. At 6,531 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Where Oakton ranks
Oakton scores 20th nationally and 10th within Virginia — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Oakton ranks 25,320 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 2,661 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 611 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Oakton's low rating (20th percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Oakton's 55.8% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Oakton's 25,320-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Oakton, see the exposure-zones guide.