Oak Shores, CA
Oak Shores wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Oak Shores at the 97th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 704 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Oak Shores at the 97th percentile, close to its 97th-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
704 buildings are counted in Oak Shores, and 79.4% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 3.3% rated Minimal.
Oak Shores against the rest of the country
Oak Shores's 97th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 81st ranking inside California does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 17 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Oak Shores ranks 841 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 14,608 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 308 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
Oak Shores and the insurance market
Oak Shores's 97th-percentile score lands in California, the only two states requiring a wildfire disclosure at sale. California's surplus-lines homeowners market passed 300,000 policies for the first time in 2025, driven by carriers pulling back from wildfire-exposed areas statewide. The disclosure-law guide covers what it requires.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Oak Shores (79.4%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Oak Shores's figures come from
Oak Shores's 97th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Oak Shores's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.