Noel, MO
Noel, MO's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores Noel at the 82nd national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally), a figure built from 647 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Noel's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 85th percentile nationally.
Where Noel's buildings actually sit
53% of Noel's 647 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 343 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 46.8% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0.2% are Minimal.
Noel against the rest of the country
Compare Noel's two percentiles: 99th within Missouri, only 82nd nationally — a gap of 17 points that marks it as unusually exposed for its own state. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Noel ranks 5,551 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,231 by building count (1 is largest). Within Missouri alone, it ranks 11 of 1,062 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Missouri on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Noel's very high rating (82nd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
With 53% of Noel in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
Where Noel's figures come from
Noel's 82nd-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Noel's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.