Ninilchik, AK
How exposed is Ninilchik to wildfire?
Ninilchik sits at the 88th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 1,262 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Ninilchik at the 89th national percentile — 1 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Ninilchik's building exposure, zone by zone
1,262 buildings are counted in Ninilchik, and 95.6% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0.3% rated Minimal.
Where Ninilchik ranks
Ninilchik's 88th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 72nd ranking inside Alaska does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 16 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Ninilchik ranks 3,897 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,282 by building count (1 is largest). Within Alaska alone, it ranks 91 of 322 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Alaska on its state page.
Ninilchik and the insurance market
Ninilchik's very high rating (88th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Ninilchik's 95.6% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
Where Ninilchik's figures come from
Ninilchik's 88th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Ninilchik's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.