New Castle, VA
New Castle wildfire risk explained
Out of every US place USFS scores, New Castle lands at the 72nd percentile for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 138 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks New Castle at the 70th national percentile — 2 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Indirect exposure is dominant in New Castle (79% of 138 buildings): far enough from burnable vegetation to avoid flame contact, close enough for wind-blown embers. Only 21% sit in the Direct zone.
Where New Castle ranks
There's little gap between New Castle's 72nd national percentile and its 85th percentile inside Virginia, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, New Castle ranks 8,936 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 27,385 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 103 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
New Castle and the insurance market
New Castle's high rating (72nd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
New Castle's 79% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
New Castle's 72nd-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond New Castle, see the exposure-zones guide.