Nellysford, VA
Nellysford, VA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Out of every US place USFS scores, Nellysford lands at the 69th percentile for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 886 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Nellysford at the 66th national percentile — 2 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Where Nellysford's buildings actually sit
886 buildings are counted in Nellysford, and 96.5% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
Nellysford against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Nellysford's 69th national percentile and its 81st percentile inside Virginia, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Nellysford ranks 9,913 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 12,851 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 133 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Nellysford's 69th-percentile, high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Nellysford (96.5%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 886 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Nellysford. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Nellysford, see the exposure-zones guide.