Modesto, IL
Modesto, IL's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Modesto's 185 buildings earn a 2nd-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Modesto's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 2nd percentile nationally.
Modesto's building exposure, zone by zone
Most of Modesto's buildings (95.7% of 185) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure.
Modesto against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Modesto's 2nd national percentile and its 16th percentile inside Illinois, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Modesto ranks 30,785 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 25,411 by building count (1 is largest). Within Illinois alone, it ranks 1,209 of 1,445 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Illinois on its state page.
Modesto and the insurance market
Modesto's low wildfire rating (2nd percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Hardening a home in Modesto
Modesto's 95.7% Minimal-exposure share means structure-level hardening matters less here than it would elsewhere — still worth the low-cost basics, per the home-hardening guide.
Where Modesto's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 185 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Modesto. The exposure-zones guide covers what Modesto's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.