Mill Bay, AK
Mill Bay, AK's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Mill Bay sits at the 25th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 1,633 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Mill Bay at the 27th national percentile — 3 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
USFS puts 52.9% of Mill Bay's 1,633 buildings in the Indirect exposure zone, versus 42.6% Direct and 4.5% Minimal — a place where the fire doesn't need to reach the structure directly for embers to.
Where Mill Bay ranks
Mill Bay scores 25th nationally and 23rd within Alaska — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Mill Bay ranks 23,689 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 8,637 by building count (1 is largest). Within Alaska alone, it ranks 248 of 322 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Alaska on its state page.
Mill Bay and the insurance market
Mill Bay's moderate wildfire rating (25th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
With ember exposure the dominant pattern in Mill Bay (52.9% Indirect), vent screens and roofing material tend to matter more than lot clearing alone. The home-hardening guide covers both.
Where Mill Bay's figures come from
Mill Bay's 25th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Mill Bay's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.