Mesa, AZ
Mesa wildfire risk explained
Mesa sits at the 78th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 182,613 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Mesa's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 76th percentile nationally.
Where Mesa's buildings actually sit
Only 5.4% of Mesa's 182,613 buildings carry Direct exposure and 15.2% carry Indirect; the remaining 79.4% are Minimal, which shifts the risk driving this page's score toward the surrounding landscape rather than any one structure. At 182,613 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
How Mesa compares
Inside Arizona, Mesa sits at just the 40th percentile even though it scores 78th nationally — the state's overall wildfire exposure is high enough to make this a relatively quiet corner of it. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Mesa ranks 6,890 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 31 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 266 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Mesa and the insurance market
At the 78th percentile nationally, Mesa carries the high rating that has pushed some carriers to limit new business in similarly-scored places elsewhere in the country. Worth comparing quotes rather than assuming last year's renewal terms still apply.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Even with 79.4% of Mesa outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 182,613 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Mesa. For more on what minimal exposure implies beyond Mesa, see the exposure-zones guide.