Martinez Lake, AZ
Martinez Lake, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Martinez Lake's 387 buildings earn a 74th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Martinez Lake's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 72nd percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
50.6% of Martinez Lake's 387 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 196 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 29.7% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 19.6% are Minimal.
How Martinez Lake compares
Martinez Lake ranks lower within Arizona (36th percentile statewide) than its 74th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Martinez Lake ranks 8,310 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 19,459 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 284 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Martinez Lake and the insurance market
Martinez Lake's 74th-percentile, high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Martinez Lake (50.6%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Martinez Lake's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Martinez Lake's 8,310-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Martinez Lake's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.