Mantoloking, NJ
How exposed is Mantoloking to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Mantoloking at the 83rd national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 610 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Mantoloking at the 77th percentile, close to its 83rd-percentile risk score.
Where Mantoloking's buildings actually sit
Most of Mantoloking's buildings (100% of 610) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure.
Mantoloking against the rest of the country
Mantoloking's risk sits at a similar level relative to New Jersey (87th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (83rd) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Mantoloking ranks 5,362 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,694 by building count (1 is largest). Within New Jersey alone, it ranks 90 of 700 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New Jersey on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Mantoloking's very high rating (83rd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Even with 100% of Mantoloking outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Mantoloking's figures come from
Mantoloking's 83rd-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Mantoloking's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.