Manchester, TN
Manchester, TN's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Manchester sits at the 45th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 5,684 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Manchester at the 48th percentile, close to its 45th-percentile risk score.
Manchester's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS puts 62.5% of Manchester's 5,684 buildings in the Indirect exposure zone, versus 37.5% Direct and 0% Minimal — a place where the fire doesn't need to reach the structure directly for embers to. At 5,684 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Manchester against the rest of the country
Manchester scores 45th nationally and 35th within Tennessee — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Manchester ranks 17,413 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 3,041 by building count (1 is largest). Within Tennessee alone, it ranks 327 of 502 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Tennessee on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Manchester's elevated rating (45th percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
What would actually reduce this score
Manchester's 62.5% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
Where Manchester's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 5,684 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Manchester. The exposure-zones guide covers what Manchester's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.