Lost Creek, TX
Lost Creek wildfire risk explained
Lost Creek's 620 buildings earn a 79th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Lost Creek's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 77th percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Direct exposure dominates in Lost Creek: 88.7% of its 620 buildings, versus 11.3% Indirect and 0% Minimal. Clearing space around a structure changes the outcome here more than any single building-material swap.
How Lost Creek compares
Lost Creek's 79th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 59th ranking inside Texas does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 20 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Lost Creek ranks 6,600 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,562 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 740 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Lost Creek's 79th-percentile, high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Lost Creek (88.7%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Lost Creek's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Lost Creek's 6,600-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Lost Creek's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.