Lake Caroline, VA
Lake Caroline, VA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Lake Caroline's 1,282 buildings earn a 43rd-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Lake Caroline at the 43rd percentile, close to its 43rd-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Of Lake Caroline's 1,282 counted buildings, 96.1% carry Direct exposure and only 1.2% carry Minimal — a lopsided split that puts defensible-space clearing ahead of vents or roofing as the intervention worth doing first.
How Lake Caroline compares
There's little gap between Lake Caroline's 43rd national percentile and its 38th percentile inside Virginia, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Lake Caroline ranks 18,012 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,189 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 422 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Lake Caroline's elevated wildfire rating (43rd percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
What would actually reduce this score
Lake Caroline's 96.1% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Lake Caroline's 18,012-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Lake Caroline, see the exposure-zones guide.