Lake Carmel, NY
Lake Carmel, NY's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Lake Carmel sits at the 42nd percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 3,195 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Lake Carmel at the 41st percentile, close to its 42nd-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
3,195 buildings are counted in Lake Carmel, and 59.3% of them are Indirect exposure — ember-driven risk rather than the 40.4% in Direct exposure or the 0.3% rated Minimal.
Where Lake Carmel ranks
Compare Lake Carmel's two percentiles: 88th within New York, only 42nd nationally — a gap of 45 points that marks it as unusually exposed for its own state. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Lake Carmel ranks 18,190 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 5,171 by building count (1 is largest). Within New York alone, it ranks 159 of 1,289 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New York on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Lake Carmel's elevated wildfire rating (42nd percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because 59.3% of Lake Carmel's buildings sit in the Indirect zone, sealing the ember pathway (vents, roofing, gutters) is the intervention this page's data actually supports — see the home-hardening guide.
Where Lake Carmel's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 3,195 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Lake Carmel. The exposure-zones guide covers what Lake Carmel's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.