Lake Barcroft, VA
Lake Barcroft, VA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores Lake Barcroft at the 11th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally), a figure built from 2,719 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Lake Barcroft's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 11th percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Direct exposure dominates in Lake Barcroft: 70.6% of its 2,719 buildings, versus 0% Indirect and 29.4% Minimal. Clearing space around a structure changes the outcome here more than any single building-material swap.
Lake Barcroft against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Lake Barcroft's 11th national percentile and its 3rd percentile inside Virginia, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Lake Barcroft ranks 28,100 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 5,899 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 664 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
At the 11th national percentile, Lake Barcroft rates low for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
With 70.6% of Lake Barcroft in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
Where Lake Barcroft's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 2,719 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Lake Barcroft. The exposure-zones guide covers what Lake Barcroft's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.