Horseshoe Lake, AR
Horseshoe Lake, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Out of every US place USFS scores, Horseshoe Lake lands at the 41st percentile for wildfire risk to structures — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 300 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Horseshoe Lake at the 42nd national percentile — 1 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
USFS classifies 58.3% of Horseshoe Lake's buildings as Minimal exposure, the largest of the three zones here by a wide margin over 8.3% Direct and 33.3% Indirect — a landscape-level risk rather than a building-by-building one.
Where Horseshoe Lake ranks
Inside Arkansas, Horseshoe Lake sits at just the 19th percentile even though it scores 41st nationally — the state's overall wildfire exposure is high enough to make this a relatively quiet corner of it. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Horseshoe Lake ranks 18,584 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 21,621 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 497 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
Horseshoe Lake and the insurance market
Horseshoe Lake's elevated wildfire rating (41st percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Horseshoe Lake's 58.3% Minimal-exposure share means structure-level hardening matters less here than it would elsewhere — still worth the low-cost basics, per the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Horseshoe Lake's 41st-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what minimal exposure implies beyond Horseshoe Lake, see the exposure-zones guide.