Horseshoe Bend, TX
Horseshoe Bend, TX's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Horseshoe Bend's 636 buildings earn a 93rd-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Horseshoe Bend's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 92nd percentile nationally.
Where Horseshoe Bend's buildings actually sit
75.2% of Horseshoe Bend's 636 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 478 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 24.8% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0% are Minimal.
How Horseshoe Bend compares
Horseshoe Bend's risk sits at a similar level relative to Texas (90th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (93rd) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Horseshoe Bend ranks 2,378 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,398 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 179 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Horseshoe Bend
Horseshoe Bend's 93rd-percentile, very high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
What would actually reduce this score
Horseshoe Bend's 75.2% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 636 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Horseshoe Bend. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Horseshoe Bend, see the exposure-zones guide.