Goodnews Bay, AK
Goodnews Bay wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Goodnews Bay at the 42nd national percentile for risk to structures, modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a score built from 93 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Goodnews Bay at the 45th percentile, close to its 42nd-percentile risk score.
Where Goodnews Bay's buildings actually sit
79.6% of Goodnews Bay's 93 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 74 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 19.4% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 1.1% are Minimal.
Where Goodnews Bay ranks
Goodnews Bay's risk sits at a similar level relative to Alaska (32nd percentile statewide) as it does nationally (42nd) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Goodnews Bay ranks 18,362 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 29,342 by building count (1 is largest). Within Alaska alone, it ranks 220 of 322 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Alaska on its state page.
Goodnews Bay and the insurance market
At the 42nd national percentile, Goodnews Bay rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
Hardening a home in Goodnews Bay
Goodnews Bay's 79.6% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Goodnews Bay's 18,362-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Goodnews Bay, see the exposure-zones guide.