Goleta, CA
Goleta, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Goleta at the 90th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 9,320 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Goleta at the 90th percentile, close to its 90th-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
69.2% of Goleta's 9,320 buildings fall in USFS's Indirect exposure zone — ember cast rather than direct flame — against 5.3% Direct and 25.4% Minimal. Vent screens and roofing material matter more here than lot clearing alone. At 9,320 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Where Goleta ranks
Goleta's 90th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 61st ranking inside California does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 29 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Goleta ranks 3,269 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 1,765 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 619 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Goleta
Goleta's 90th-percentile score lands in California, the only two states requiring a wildfire disclosure at sale. California's surplus-lines homeowners market passed 300,000 policies for the first time in 2025, driven by carriers pulling back from wildfire-exposed areas statewide. The disclosure-law guide covers what it requires.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Goleta's 69.2% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
Where Goleta's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 9,320 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Goleta. The exposure-zones guide covers what Goleta's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.