Fredericksburg, VA
Fredericksburg wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Fredericksburg at the 33rd national percentile for risk to structures, close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — a score built from 7,360 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Fredericksburg's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 33rd percentile nationally.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Only 16.4% of Fredericksburg's 7,360 buildings carry Direct exposure and 7.3% carry Indirect; the remaining 76.3% are Minimal, which shifts the risk driving this page's score toward the surrounding landscape rather than any one structure. At 7,360 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Fredericksburg against the rest of the country
Fredericksburg scores 33rd nationally and 23rd within Virginia — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Fredericksburg ranks 21,068 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 2,320 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 525 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
Fredericksburg and the insurance market
Fredericksburg's moderate rating (33rd percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
What would actually reduce this score
With 76.3% of buildings rated Minimal exposure, Fredericksburg gets less benefit from structure hardening than a Direct- or Indirect-dominant place would — the home-hardening guide explains why the zone matters.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Fredericksburg's 21,068-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what minimal exposure implies beyond Fredericksburg, see the exposure-zones guide.