First Mesa, AZ
How exposed is First Mesa to wildfire?
First Mesa's 562 buildings earn a 28th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks First Mesa at the 31st national percentile — 2 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Where First Mesa's buildings actually sit
87% of First Mesa's 562 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 489 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 13% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0% are Minimal.
First Mesa against the rest of the country
First Mesa ranks lower within Arizona (7th percentile statewide) than its 28th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, First Mesa ranks 22,586 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 16,369 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 409 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
First Mesa and the insurance market
At the 28th national percentile, First Mesa rates moderate for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
With 87% of First Mesa in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
Where First Mesa's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 562 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for First Mesa. The exposure-zones guide covers what First Mesa's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.