Fair Oaks Ranch, TX
Fair Oaks Ranch wildfire risk explained
Fair Oaks Ranch's 4,508 buildings earn a 74th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Fair Oaks Ranch at the 71st national percentile — 2 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
4,508 buildings are counted in Fair Oaks Ranch, and 68.1% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
How Fair Oaks Ranch compares
Fair Oaks Ranch's 74th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 42nd ranking inside Texas does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 32 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Fair Oaks Ranch ranks 8,270 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 3,788 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 1,037 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
Fair Oaks Ranch and the insurance market
Fair Oaks Ranch's 74th-percentile, high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Hardening a home in Fair Oaks Ranch
Because Direct exposure dominates in Fair Oaks Ranch (68.1%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 4,508 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Fair Oaks Ranch. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Fair Oaks Ranch, see the exposure-zones guide.