Erma, NJ
Erma, NJ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Erma's 1,352 buildings earn a 67th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Erma at the 61st national percentile — 6 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
51.8% of Erma's 1,352 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 700 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 20.6% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 27.6% are Minimal.
Where Erma ranks
Erma's risk sits at a similar level relative to New Jersey (76th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (67th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Erma ranks 10,470 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 9,819 by building count (1 is largest). Within New Jersey alone, it ranks 168 of 700 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New Jersey on its state page.
Erma and the insurance market
Erma's high rating (67th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Erma (51.8%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 1,352 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Erma. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Erma, see the exposure-zones guide.