Elsmere, KY
Elsmere, KY's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Elsmere's 3,505 buildings earn a 11th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Elsmere at the 12th percentile, close to its 11th-percentile risk score.
Where Elsmere's buildings actually sit
Elsmere rates 45.4% Minimal exposure against just 28% Direct and 26.6% Indirect — of 3,505 buildings counted, few sit close enough to burnable vegetation for USFS to flag them individually.
How Elsmere compares
Elsmere scores 11th nationally and 12th within Kentucky — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Elsmere ranks 28,109 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 4,765 by building count (1 is largest). Within Kentucky alone, it ranks 483 of 552 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Kentucky on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Elsmere's low wildfire rating (11th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 45.4% of Elsmere outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Elsmere's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 3,505 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Elsmere. The exposure-zones guide covers what Elsmere's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.