Elmira, CA
Elmira, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Elmira at the 67th national percentile for risk to structures, well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a score built from 184 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Elmira at the 66th national percentile — 1 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Most of Elmira's buildings (83.2% of 184) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure.
Elmira against the rest of the country
Elmira ranks lower within California (25th percentile statewide) than its 67th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Elmira ranks 10,264 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 25,449 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 1,183 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Elmira's 67th-percentile score lands in California, the only two states requiring a wildfire disclosure at sale. California's surplus-lines homeowners market passed 300,000 policies for the first time in 2025, driven by carriers pulling back from wildfire-exposed areas statewide. The disclosure-law guide covers what it requires.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Even with 83.2% of Elmira outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Elmira's figures come from
Elmira's 67th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Elmira's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.